The 2026 Ballon d'Or debate has become Harry Kane against Lamine Yamal: 73 goals against a World Cup and a league title. We wanted to know what the season looked like with the reputations taken out, so we ran the 2025/26 league seasons of the nominees through the same Scout52 model clubs use to scout players. The two players at the top are Yamal, and someone who is hardly in the conversation.
How to read this: Tier 1 benchmarked, 2025/26 league matches only (no cups, no Champions League, no World Cup). Each player is scored out of 10 against players in the same position in Europe's top five leagues. Position comes from where his team lined him up over the season, so Yamal and Olise are measured as midfielders. Messi (MLS), Sadio Mané and Julián Quiñones (Saudi Pro League) play outside the top five, so they aren't ranked here. Nuno Mendes, Kvaratskhelia, Dembélé, Hakimi, João Neves, Marquinhos and Fabián Ruiz played fewer than 1,500 league minutes, so treat their scores with care.
The full ranking
| Player | S52 | Mins | G | A | Goal Threat | Chance Creation | Ball Carry | Passing | Duels | Defensive |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Michael OliseElite Attacking Midfielder · Bayern | 9.1 | 2,317 | 15 | 19 | 9.9 | 9.7 | 9.5 | 8.6 | 5.7 | 0.8 |
| 2. Lamine YamalElite Progressive Carrier · Barcelona | 9.1 | 2,268 | 16 | 11 | 9.7 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 7.1 | 5.7 | 1.0 |
| 3. Nuno MendesElite Wide Defender · PSG | 9.0 | 1,251 | 4 | 5 | 9.7 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 7.8 | 5.4 | 3.6 |
| 4. Khvicha KvaratskheliaInside Forward · PSG | 8.9 | 1,483 | 8 | 4 | 8.7 | 8.6 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.6 | 8.8 |
| 5. Luis DíazElite Creative Forward · Bayern | 8.8 | 2,450 | 15 | 14 | 9.1 | 9.6 | 8.6 | 9.2 | 2.7 | 5.8 |
| 6. Kylian MbappéElite Inside Forward · Real Madrid | 8.7 | 2,604 | 25 | 5 | 9.5 | 8.9 | 9.2 | 9.0 | 3.9 | 0.2 |
| 7. Ousmane DembéléElite Creative Forward · PSG | 8.7 | 1,062 | 10 | 7 | 9.5 | 9.7 | 8.0 | 10.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 8. Harry KaneInside Forward · Bayern | 8.5 | 2,382 | 36 | 5 | 9.8 | 7.1 | 7.0 | 7.4 | 7.6 | 5.5 |
| 9. Jude BellinghamBox-to-Box · Real Madrid | 8.5 | 1,917 | 6 | 4 | 9.5 | 7.8 | 9.4 | 8.8 | 9.5 | 4.9 |
| 10. RodriDeep Playmaker · Man City | 8.4 | 1,513 | 1 | 0 | 3.5 | 5.2 | 4.2 | 9.9 | 9.6 | 6.2 |
| 11. Vinícius JúniorElite Complete Forward · Real Madrid | 8.4 | 2,825 | 16 | 5 | 8.0 | 8.8 | 9.5 | 8.9 | 6.5 | 1.6 |
| 12. Erling HaalandElite Poacher · Man City | 8.3 | 2,958 | 27 | 8 | 9.6 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 8.0 | 1.1 |
| 13. Declan RiceAdvanced Playmaker · Arsenal | 8.1 | 3,099 | 4 | 5 | 6.2 | 7.8 | 1.2 | 9.1 | 6.3 | 6.7 |
| 14. Bruno FernandesAdvanced Playmaker · Man Utd | 8.1 | 3,066 | 9 | 21 | 7.2 | 9.8 | 1.9 | 7.5 | 2.2 | 2.7 |
| 15. VitinhaAdvanced Playmaker · PSG | 8.0 | 2,121 | 1 | 7 | 3.6 | 7.7 | 5.2 | 9.9 | 3.2 | 4.1 |
| 16. Lautaro MartínezCreative Forward · Inter | 7.8 | 2,178 | 17 | 6 | 9.5 | 7.8 | 5.4 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 4.2 |
| 17. Dayot UpamecanoBall-Playing Defender · Bayern | 7.6 | 1,797 | 1 | 1 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 1.1 | 9.7 | 4.5 | 5.3 |
| 18. João NevesDeep Playmaker · PSG | 7.5 | 1,287 | 5 | 1 | 9.2 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 9.1 | 5.3 | 4.1 |
| 19. Gabriel MagalhãesBall-Playing Defender · Arsenal | 7.5 | 2,751 | 3 | 4 | 8.3 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 7.4 | 9.5 | 3.4 |
| 20. Fabián RuizAdvanced Playmaker · PSG | 7.4 | 1,129 | 1 | 4 | 4.4 | 8.1 | 0.1 | 9.9 | 0.5 | 3.9 |
| 21. Pau CubarsíBall-Playing Defender · Barcelona | 7.3 | 2,708 | 1 | 0 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 10.0 | 6.6 | 2.8 |
| 22. William SalibaBall-Playing Defender · Arsenal | 7.0 | 2,615 | 1 | 0 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 4.9 | 9.5 | 7.3 | 0.6 |
| 23. Ferran TorresElite Poacher · Barcelona | 6.9 | 1,984 | 16 | 2 | 9.6 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 1.0 |
| 24. MarquinhosBall-Playing Defender · PSG | 6.8 | 1,049 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 2.7 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 1.0 |
| 25. Willian PachoBall-Playing Defender · PSG | 6.6 | 1,915 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 5.9 |
| 26. Achraf HakimiProgressive Defender · PSG | 5.3 | 1,374 | 2 | 2 | 9.5 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 9.7 | 0.5 | 0.6 |
| 27. Marc CucurellaWide Defender · Chelsea | 4.7 | 2,723 | 1 | 4 | 5.5 | 8.9 | 2.2 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 4.5 |
Green = 9.0 or higher for his position, red = below 3.0. Composites are positional benchmarks: a centre-back's Goal Threat is measured against centre-backs. Passing combines volume, key passes and pass accuracy. Where a player's accuracy wasn't recorded properly (Luis Díaz, Nuno Mendes, Bruno Fernandes, João Neves), it uses volume and key passes only.
Kane v Yamal
Kane scored 36 Bundesliga goals to Yamal's 16, but their Goal Threat is almost level: 9.8 against 9.7. Goal Threat is judged against players in the same position, and the model rates a midfielder with 16 goals almost as highly as a striker with 36.
The gap opens up everywhere else. Yamal is 9.9 for Ball Carry and 9.6 for Chance Creation, in the top 10% for his age group in both. Kane's 7.0 and 7.1 there are above average for a striker, but he wins on what strikers don't usually do: Duels 7.6 and Defensive 5.5, against Yamal's 5.7 and 1.0. He also edges Passing, 7.4 to 7.1. Yamal does almost nothing without the ball. Barcelona don't need him to.
On match rating Yamal edges it, 7.95 to 7.87, and overall the model has him half a point clear: 9.1 to 8.5.
The name nobody is talking about: Michael Olise
The highest Scout52 Score of any nominee belongs to Kane's own teammate. Michael Olise scored 15 and set up 19 in the Bundesliga and graded 9.11, just ahead of Yamal's 9.05. He is in the top 10% for his age group on four composites: Goal Threat 9.9, Chance Creation 9.7, Ball Carry 9.5 and Passing 8.6.
Bayern's 122 league goals had two engines. Kane finished the moves, and Olise started a large share of them. The jury will remember Kane's goals. Olise had the better season by the data.
What else the data says
Mbappé and Dembélé are close behind
Mbappé (8.7) is an Elite Inside Forward and in the top 10% for his age group on four composites. Dembélé (8.7) graded as an Elite Creative Forward with Chance Creation 9.7, but on only 1,062 league minutes. His case, like last year's, rests on the Champions League.
Haaland is the purest finisher here
Erling Haaland's Goal Threat is 9.6, but his Passing (0.5) and Ball Carry (2.1) are among the lowest of any attacker on the list. The model calls him an Elite Poacher, and his 8.3 overall reflects how little else he is asked to do.
Rodri still runs the game
Rodri, the World Cup's Golden Ball winner, graded 8.4 as a Deep Playmaker, with Passing 9.9 and Duels 9.6, both top 10% for his age group. Those numbers are from a league season in which he played 1,513 minutes.
Defenders struggle in a model like this
Eight of the nine defenders are in the bottom half of the ranking, and Marc Cucurella (4.7) and Achraf Hakimi (5.3) are last. The exception is Nuno Mendes, third on 9.0, a full-back who attacks like a winger. That says more about what league data can measure than about how they defended. Organising a back line and winning the ball before a chance happens don't show up in tackles and duels.
If our model had a vote
Each juror ranks ten players. If the Scout52 model were one of them, its ballot would read Olise, Yamal, Nuno Mendes, Kvaratskhelia, Díaz, Mbappé, Dembélé, Kane, Bellingham, Rodri. Kane is eighth.
That isn't how the vote works, and it shouldn't be. The jury is told to weigh trophies, decisive moments and the World Cup, and our model sees none of those. A ranking built only from league matches can't see Ferran Torres' extra-time winner in the World Cup final or Vitinha's man-of-the-match performance in Budapest.
The data says Yamal. The goals say Kane.
On league performance, Yamal and Olise were the two best players among the nominees, and Kane was a level below them. Add the criteria the jury actually uses, a World Cup winner's medal and a league title, and Yamal's case gets stronger, not weaker.
Kane's case is the 73 goals, the double and a story that suits a ceremony in London. If he wins it, it will be because the jury weighed his goals over everything else. If Yamal wins it, the data and the trophies will have agreed.
The Bottom Line
We'd give it to Lamine Yamal. He was a close second in the model, 0.06 behind Olise and half a point clear of Kane, and he won the World Cup and La Liga. The model's real surprise is Michael Olise, who had the best league season of any nominee and is barely mentioned. The winner is announced at the London Palladium on Monday 26 October. For the date, the shortlist and how the vote works, read Ballon d'Or 2026: everything you need to know.
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