Manchester United's summer has been a midfield rebuild in motion. Casemiro left on a free for Inter Miami, Youri Tielemans and Andrey Santos arrived for a combined £85m, and Michael Carrick has spent the window chasing two more pieces: a defensive midfielder in Carlos Baleba — a bid of around £60m plus add-ons, the end of an 18-month pursuit — and a left-sided defender, with Lewis Hall high on the shortlist. Two signings, two questions. Is Hall an upgrade on Luke Shaw? And does Baleba actually replace what Casemiro gave them? The composite data answers both.
The Shortlist Across Four Dimensions
Before the head-to-heads, here's the full five-man group — Casemiro, Baleba, Hall, Shaw and academy man Kobbie Mainoo — ranked on the four composites that matter most for United's needs. No single player leads all four, which is exactly the point: these are different tools for different jobs.
Two names jump out of these four boards. Lewis Hall tops the ball-carrying chart and sits second for both defending and passing — a remarkably complete left-sided profile. And Casemiro leads on defending and goal contribution, the second of which (11 goals and assists to the next-best 3) is the single hardest number in this whole piece to replace. Hold those two facts; they drive everything below.
Lewis Hall vs Luke Shaw: The Left-Side Upgrade
United want a long-term answer down the left, and the contrast between the 21-year-old target and the 31-year-old incumbent is stark. Here are the two spotlights side by side.
| Composite / Metric | Lewis Hall (21) | Luke Shaw (31) |
|---|---|---|
| Scout52 Score | 7.0 | 6.1 |
| Ball Carry | 5.89 | 2.39 |
| Defensive | 5.01 | 3.93 |
| Passing | 8.59 | 7.67 |
| Work Rate | 8.83 | 7.86 |
| Chance Creation | 2.45 | 0.95 |
| Key Passes / 90 | 1.21 | 0.50 |
| Duel Win % | 56.5% | 55.1% |
Green = better of the two. Hall wins every composite — and the ten-year age gap points the same way.
This isn't close. Hall leads Shaw on every composite we've listed, and the defining gap is ball-carrying: 5.89 to 2.39. Hall is a modern, ball-progressing left-sided defender who drives play up the pitch; Shaw at 31, in the experienced (30-32) band, is now a more static ball-player whose best attribute is still his passing (7.67) but whose carrying and defensive output have tailed off. Hall doesn't just edge the incumbent — he more than doubles him for carrying and creation, out-passes him, and does it a decade younger. On this data, he's a clean upgrade and a genuine future-proofing of the position.
Can Baleba Replace Casemiro?
The midfield question is harder, and the honest answer is more nuanced. Casemiro left as a 34-year-old with a very particular profile; Baleba arrives at 22 as something quite different. The spotlights make the contrast obvious.
| Composite / Metric | Carlos Baleba (22) | Casemiro (34) |
|---|---|---|
| Scout52 Score | 6.3 | 7.3 |
| Ball Carry | 3.80 | 2.20 |
| Defensive | 4.37 | 5.35 |
| Passing | 7.54 | 8.78 |
| Work Rate | 8.67 | 9.26 |
| Goal Threat | 0.66 | 6.80 |
| Goals + Assists | 0 | 11 |
| Tackles + Int / 90 | 3.36 | 4.12 |
Green = better of the two. On the metrics used here, Baleba leads only ball-carrying — but he's 12 years younger, with his form trending up.
Read at face value, this looks lopsided — and on current output, Baleba does not replace Casemiro. The Brazilian grades higher overall (7.3 to 6.3), wins the ball more (4.12 tackles and interceptions per 90 to 3.36), passes better (8.78 to 7.54), and offers a goal threat that is simply a different category: 6.80 to 0.66, and 11 goal contributions to Baleba's zero. If United are asking "who replaces the goals from deep and the elite ball-winning," the honest answer is that Baleba, right now, does not.
But that face-value read misses the shape of the deal. Casemiro is 34 and benchmarked as a veteran; Baleba is 22 with his recent form trending up and a profile United's data team prizes — mobility, work rate and progression. Where Casemiro sat still and struck from the box, Baleba carries (3.80 to 2.20) and covers ground. He isn't a like-for-like replacement; he's a role-and-age reset. United aren't buying Casemiro's goals — those go uncovered by this signing — they're buying the athletic, ball-winning engine to sit alongside Mainoo's passing and Tielemans' control. That's a coherent plan, provided nobody expects the 11 goal contributions to reappear.
The Targets and the Incumbents
Lewis Hall
Luke Shaw
Carlos Baleba
Casemiro
Kobbie Mainoo
One Clean Upgrade, One Calculated Reset
The two targets tell different stories. Lewis Hall is the straightforward one — he beats Luke Shaw on every composite, doubles him for ball-carrying and creation, and is a decade younger. That's not a gamble; it's an upgrade a data department signs off without much debate.
Baleba is the judgement call. He doesn't replace Casemiro's output — nobody available does, and the 11 goal contributions in particular walk out of the door uncovered. What he replaces is the role: the mobile, ball-winning, ball-carrying engine, delivered by a 22-year-old on an upward curve rather than a 34-year-old on a downward one. Paired with Mainoo's passing and Tielemans' control, it's a defensible plan — as long as United's expectations are set to "athletic anchor," not "Casemiro's goals from midfield."
The Bottom Line
United's shortlist splits neatly into a certainty and a bet. Hall is the certainty — younger, more mobile, better on the ball and better defensively than the man he'd succeed, and the clear long-term answer down the left. Baleba is the bet — a profile United have chased for a year and a half, whose current numbers trail the departed Casemiro but whose age, athleticism and rising form are the whole point. Neither signing is about matching a spreadsheet line for line. One future-proofs a position; the other resets a role. On the data, both make sense — provided the club is honest about what each one actually brings.
See the Composite Data Behind Every Transfer
Scout52 grades players across six benchmarked composites and reveals what a target really replaces — from £18.99/month versus £20k+/year. Built by an active academy recruitment professional.
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