Crystal Palace beat Nottingham Forest 3-1 at Selhurst Park on Sunday 11 October 2026, with Oliver Glasner, Palace's former manager, now in the away dugout. Four players on the pitch tie the two clubs' summers together: Daniel Muñoz, sold by Palace to Forest for a reported £22m; Anan Khalaili, the Union Saint-Gilloise signing brought in to replace him; Quinten Timber, Palace's deadline-day signing, who set up the equaliser; and Liam Delap, Forest's club-record signing, who played 72 minutes. Two questions: who is winning the Muñoz deal so far, and is Delap's fee showing yet?
The Match in Brief
Forest led inside three minutes through Dan Ndoye. Palace turned it round before half-time: Daichi Kamada equalised on 41 minutes from Timber's pass, and Jefferson Lerma put Palace in front in first-half stoppage time from Adam Wharton's assist. Yeremy Pino made it 3-1 on 59 minutes. Muñoz and Khalaili both played the full 90; Delap was replaced by Chris Wood on 72 minutes.
Nobody in the transfer story had a big individual afternoon. Muñoz (match rating 6.08) made three tackles and an interception and played two key passes, but won only 8 of his 21 duels and none of his four dribbles. Khalaili (6.14) won 3 of 10 duels and had two shots, neither on target. Timber (6.48) supplied the assist and won 9 of 18 duels. Delap (6.03) had two shots, one on target, and found a team-mate with 5 of his 13 passes. The season numbers tell more than one game, so that is where the rest of this piece goes.
The Muñoz Deal: What Palace Sold, What Forest Bought
Palace bought Muñoz from Genk for £8.5m in January 2024 and sold him to Forest on 31 August 2026 for a reported fee of around £22m, on a three-year deal. At Forest he is reunited with Glasner, who coached him at Palace and now plays a back five with wing-backs. That is Muñoz's role: wing-back in Glasner's back five. The data lists him as a midfielder in both seasons, so his scores are benchmarked against midfielders each time, which at least makes his then-and-now a like-for-like read.
Palace replaced him with Anan Khalaili, 22, from Union Saint-Gilloise. No fee has been confirmed for that deal, so we won't quote one.
| Player · season | S52 | Defensive | Chance Creation | Goal Threat | Ball Carry | Passing | Duels |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muñoz 2025/26Crystal Palace · 2,403 mins · Ball Winner | 5.8 | 6.8 | 5.3 | 7.4 | 0.1 | 2.6 | 6.1 |
| Muñoz 2026/27Nottingham Forest · 349 mins · Needs 600 mins | 4.5 | 3.6 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 0.0 | 6.5 | 8.5 |
| Khalaili 2025/26 †Union Saint-Gilloise · 3,106 mins · Pressing Forward | 7.3 | 9.6 | 7.7 | 1.2 | 5.5 | 9.6 | 6.4 |
| Khalaili 2025/26, Tier 1 translationThe model's read of his Union season in top-five-league terms | – | 9.6 | 5.2 | 0.1 | 2.0 | 8.9 | 3.8 |
| Khalaili 2026/27Crystal Palace · 470 mins · Needs 600 mins | 6.4 | 10.0 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 3.6 | 8.6 | 4.9 |
Shading deepens with the score; red = Poor band (under 1.0). Muñoz is benchmarked against midfielders in both seasons, Khalaili against attackers. † Tier 2 (Belgium): judged against that league tier, so the translation row is the fairer comparison with his Palace numbers. Muñoz's 349 minutes include 55 for Palace before his move.
Muñoz: same manager, different numbers
Last season, under Glasner at Palace, Muñoz graded 5.8 as a Ball Winner over 2,403 minutes, with four goals and three assists. At Forest he is on 4.5, in the Average band. The drop comes from two places. His Defensive composite has fallen from 6.8 to 3.6, with tackles and interceptions down from 3.75 to 3.09 per 90. And his Goal Threat has gone from 7.4 to 3.5: the attacking threat that brought four league goals in 2025/26 haven't produced one yet this season.
The rest of his game has held up or improved. Passing is up from 2.6 to 6.5 (accuracy 79% to 83%), Chance Creation from 5.3 to 6.7 (key passes 1.05 to 1.81 per 90), and Duels from 6.1 to 8.5, top 25% for his age group. The Ball Carry 0.0 looks alarming but isn't new. It was 0.1 last season; he has never been a dribbler, and he hasn't completed a dribble in the league this season. Forest are getting a wing-back who works and creates, not one who beats players.
Khalaili: the defending and passing travelled, the creativity hasn't yet
One label matters before the numbers. The data lists Khalaili as an attacker, the same label he carried at Union, so he is benchmarked against forwards and wide attackers. That explains the extremes. Defensive 10.0 means he defends more than almost any attacker in the top five leagues, which is exactly what a player in a wing-back role should be doing. Chance Creation 0.9 means he creates far less than that group does.
What stands out is how closely his Palace numbers match the model's Tier 1 translation of his Union season. Defensive was forecast at 9.6 and is 10.0. Passing was forecast at 8.9 and is 8.6. His tackles and interceptions have gone up, from 3.25 per 90 in Belgium to 5.55 at Palace, and he wins 55% of his duels. The part that hasn't carried over is the creativity: translated Chance Creation 5.2, actual 0.9, with key passes down from 1.77 to 0.77 per 90. His one goal came against Ipswich on Saturday 12 September.
The Forest game shows how much one 90 can move a sample this small. Before kick-off he was on 7.1 from 380 minutes. A quiet afternoon (3 of 10 duels won, rating 6.14) took him to 6.4.
| 2026/27, per 90 | Muñoz (Forest) | Khalaili (Palace) |
|---|---|---|
| League minutes | 349 | 470 |
| Tackles + interceptions | 3.09 | 5.55 |
| Duels won | 6.19 | 6.89 |
| Duel win % | 47% | 55% |
| Key passes | 1.81 | 0.77 |
| Pass accuracy | 83% | 77% |
| Dribbles won | 0.00 | 1.15 |
| Shots | 1.55 | 1.53 |
| Goals | 0.00 | 0.19 |
Green = better of the two. Khalaili wins the ball more often and more cleanly; Muñoz is still the one creating chances.
So who is winning the deal?
On the evidence so far, Palace. They took a reported £22m for a 30-year-old they paid £8.5m for, and the replacement, eight years younger, is scoring 6.4 to Muñoz's 4.5 over more minutes. Khalaili is winning more of the ball, and winning it more cleanly.
The caveats are real, though. The two scores aren't strictly like-for-like: Khalaili is judged against attackers and Muñoz against midfielders, so the comparison is about how each is doing within his own group. Both samples are under 500 minutes. And Palace haven't replaced everything. Muñoz is still the better creator (1.81 key passes per 90 to 0.77), and his 2025/26 Goal Threat of 7.4 came with four goals that Palace now have to find from somewhere else.
Delap and Timber: The Other Two Signings on the Pitch
| Player · season | S52 | Defensive | Chance Creation | Goal Threat | Ball Carry | Passing | Duels |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delap 2025/26Chelsea · 1,139 mins · Explosive Winger | 2.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 1.6 | 6.5 | 0.7 | 5.7 |
| Delap 2026/27Nottingham Forest · 349 mins · Needs 600 mins | 5.3 | 0.3 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 8.4 | 0.4 | 6.7 |
| Timber 2025/26 †Feyenoord · 1,316 mins · Advanced Playmaker | 7.1 | 7.4 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 7.1 | 7.5 | 3.3 |
| Timber 2025/26, Tier 1 translationThe model's read of his Feyenoord half-season in top-five-league terms | – | 4.9 | 8.0 | 2.3 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| Timber 2026/27Crystal Palace · 344 mins · Needs 600 mins | 6.3 | 7.1 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 8.9 | 2.7 | 8.5 |
Shading deepens with the score; red = Poor band (under 1.0). Delap is benchmarked against attackers, Timber against midfielders. † Tier 2 (Netherlands). Timber's 2025/26 row is his Feyenoord half only; his 1,111 Ligue 1 minutes for Marseille after January are not in it.
Delap: is the club-record fee showing?
Forest paid Chelsea a reported club-record £45m, rising to up to £50m with add-ons, on a five-year deal, for a striker who wasn't in Xabi Alonso's plans. Chelsea had signed him from Ipswich for £30m in 2025. His 2025/26 at Stamford Bridge graded 2.5 over 1,139 minutes, with one league goal.
Part of the fee is showing. His score has more than doubled to 5.3. Chance Creation has gone from 0.2 to 7.8 (key passes 0.24 to 1.81 per 90), Ball Carry from 6.5 to 8.4 (1.81 dribbles won per 90 at 64%), and he is top 25% for his age group in creation, carrying and duels. Last season's Explosive Winger archetype, given to a centre-forward, already hinted that his game is about running with the ball. Forest are seeing that.
The part a club-record striker is bought for isn't showing yet. Goal Threat is 3.0. He has one league goal, against Aston Villa on Saturday 12 September, and while he is shooting more (2.84 shots per 90, up from 2.05), only 18% are on target, down from 42%. Passing at 0.4 (61% accuracy) shows how little he is involved in build-up. Before the Palace game he was on 6.5 from 277 minutes; 72 quiet minutes at Selhurst Park took him to 5.3. On 349 minutes the fair answer is "not yet in front of goal", which is a long way from "no".
Timber: not the player Feyenoord had, and maybe not meant to be
Palace signed Timber from Marseille on deadline day (completed 1 September) for a reported fee of around £17m including add-ons, on a five-year deal. Marseille had only signed him from Feyenoord in January 2026, so his 2025/26 was split: 1,316 Eredivisie minutes for Feyenoord, then 1,111 in Ligue 1 for Marseille. We compare against the Feyenoord half, the larger of the two league samples, where he graded 7.1 as an Advanced Playmaker in Tier 2.
At Palace he is a different kind of midfielder. Ball Carry is 8.9 (top 10% for ages 24-29), Duels 8.5 (top 25%), Defensive 7.1. The playmaking numbers have dropped: key passes from 1.98 to 0.78 per 90, pass accuracy from 83% to 75%, Passing composite 2.7. That Passing figure is exactly what the model's Tier 1 translation of his Feyenoord season predicted (2.7), so it looks more like the step up in level than a loss of form. His assist for Kamada was his first league goal involvement for Palace. He started the Forest game on 6.7 from 254 minutes and finished it on 6.3.
Palace's other summer swap
Palace's business also included the winger swap we covered in Johnson and McNeil: What the Data Says About the Everton–Palace Swap. Neither side of it has got going. Dwight McNeil's part against Forest was one minute, on for Kamada at the end, and he has 86 league minutes this season. Brennan Johnson has 315 league minutes for Everton, an S52 of 3.4 and no goal yet. Neither is close to a sample worth judging.
Palace Sold at the Right Time; Forest Need Delap's Finishing
Palace's summer looks smart so far. They sold a 30-year-old wing-back for well over twice what they paid, replaced him with a 22-year-old whose defending and passing have carried over from Belgium almost exactly as the model forecast, and added a midfielder in Timber who carries the ball and wins duels. What they lost is Muñoz's creativity and his goals from wing-back, and Khalaili hasn't replaced those yet.
Forest's side is harder to read. Muñoz is winning more duels than he did at Palace (Duels 8.5) but is defending less and has yet to score in the same Glasner role. Delap is the bigger question. He is creating, carrying and winning duels at a level he never reached at Chelsea, but £45m rising to £50m is a striker's fee, and his Goal Threat of 3.0 is a long way below where it needs to be.
The Bottom Line
Six league games into the season, Palace are ahead on both deals they made with Forest's dugout in mind: Khalaili 6.4 to Muñoz's 4.5, with £22m reportedly banked. Delap has more than doubled his Chelsea score, but the goals that justify a club-record fee aren't there yet. Every one of these samples is under 500 minutes and one game moved three of them by between 0.4 and 1.2 points, so we will come back to all four once they pass 600 minutes and the model can give each an archetype.
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