Transfer Analysis

Summer Signings, Early Verdict: How the 19 Transfers We Analysed Have Started

• By Scout52• 8 min read

This summer we ran the numbers on 19 transfers, from Morgan Rogers' British-record move to Chelsea to Gabriel Jesus' deadline-day switch to Barcelona. Five or six league games into 2026/27, here's how every one of them has started, measured by the new Scout52 engine.

How to read this: league matches only, data to 29/09/2026. Score so far is the new Scout52 Score for this season at the new club, judged against players in the same position and league tier. We only show it for players with at least 240 league minutes, because anything less is a handful of touches. 2025/26 is last season's Score under the same engine, for comparison. Nobody on this list has reached the 600 minutes the app needs before it assigns an archetype, so treat every number here as a first read, not a verdict. † marks a Tier 2 league on one side of the comparison (Belgium, Portugal or Turkey).

The Full Table

PlayerAppsMinsG + AAvg ratingScore so far2025/26
Morgan RogersAston Villa → Chelsea · £117m54393 + 17.548.86.0
Leandro TrossardArsenal → Beşiktaş · £17m53851 + 17.508.7†6.6
Elliot AndersonNottingham Forest → Man City · £116m54150 + 07.278.68.8
Cristian RomeroTottenham → Atlético Madrid · £34.2m42780 + 07.128.29.0
RodriMan City → Barcelona · —63560 + 07.198.08.4
Enzo FernándezChelsea → Man City · £125m32481 + 06.986.97.5
Mamadou SangaréLens → Brentford · £41m53220 + 16.866.58.5
Ezri KonsaAston Villa → Arsenal · ~£50m+42810 + 06.785.86.7
Christos TzolisClub Brugge → Arsenal · £34m53650 + 16.835.6†8.8
Amar DedićBenfica → Newcastle · —43280 + 16.394.9†6.4
Brennan JohnsonCrystal Palace → Everton · Swap52490 + 06.453.52.5
Bradley BarcolaPSG → Liverpool · £123m31700 + 06.54Too early8.2
Bruno GuimarãesNewcastle → Arsenal · £75m31241 + 06.71Too early8.4
Chema AndrésStuttgart → Brighton · £22m21101 + 17.25Too early7.8
Johan ManzambiFreiburg → Aston Villa · £59.5m2991 + 17.55Too early7.8
Danny WelbeckBrighton → Chelsea · Undisc.3910 + 06.50Too early5.5
Dwight McNeilEverton → Crystal Palace · Swap2850 + 0–Too early4.1
Gabriel JesusArsenal → Barcelona · ~€10m3341 + 06.80Too early4.9
Carlos BalebaBrighton → Man Utd · £70m000 + 0–Too early4.8

Fees as reported in our original analysis. Darker blue = higher Score. Match rating for McNeil is not shown because the data provider's figure for his two appearances looks incomplete.

Flying Starts

Morgan Rogers, Chelsea

The clearest early winner. Three goals and an assist in five league games, 11 key passes, a 7.54 average rating and a Score so far of 8.8, up from 6.0 at Villa last season. He's also added three assists in the League Cup. In August we asked whether Rogers could replace Enzo Fernández's goals for Chelsea, and the answer was yes on the numbers. So far he's doing exactly that: three league goals to Enzo's one at City. One note: the data provider now lists Rogers as a forward rather than a midfielder, so this season he's being measured against attackers.

Elliot Anderson, Manchester City

No goals or assists yet, but that was never the job. Anderson has attempted 441 passes in 415 minutes, about 96 per 90, at 90% accuracy, and won 34 of his 56 duels with 13 tackles and eight interceptions. A Score of 8.6 against 8.8 last season says the £116m controller has carried his Forest profile straight into City's midfield.

Rodri, Barcelona

In August we looked at where Rodri would fit best in Spain and concluded that "Rodri is a Barcelona player". Six league games in, he's completing 94% of 391 passes with 12 tackles and nine interceptions, and his Score of 8.0 is close to last season's 8.4 from 1,513 league minutes at City. The fit looks as natural as the numbers suggested.

Cristian Romero, Atlético Madrid

Romero has won 18 of 23 duels (78%) and is passing at 92% in Simeone's back line. His Score of 8.2 is a little down on last season's Elite 9.0 at Spurs, mainly because his tackle and interception numbers are lower over four games. The duel-winning, which was the core of our case for him, has travelled.

Leandro Trossard, Beşiktaş

A goal, an assist, 10 successful dribbles and a 7.50 average rating in five games. His Score of 8.7 is well up on 6.6 at Arsenal, but read it with the dagger: it's measured against Süper Lig players, a Tier 2 league. A player dropping a level should score higher, and he is.

Bright Cameos, Too Early to Call

These players have made an impact in limited minutes, but none has reached 240 league minutes yet.

Chema Andrés

Brighton · £22m
League minutes110
Goals + assists1 + 1
Avg rating7.25

A goal and an assist in two games. The man he replaced, Carlos Baleba, hasn't played for Man Utd yet (see below).

Johan Manzambi

Aston Villa · £59.5m
League minutes99
Goals + assists1 + 1
Avg rating7.55

The best average rating on this list. The club-record signing has made an instant impact from one start and one appearance off the bench.

Gabriel Jesus

Barcelona · ~€10m
League minutes34
Goals + assists1 + 0
Avg rating6.80

A La Liga goal in 34 minutes, plus a Champions League goal in seven. We called his finishing numbers a small-sample mirage in August, and this sample is even smaller.

Bruno Guimarães

Arsenal · £75m
League minutes124
Goals + assists1 + 0
Avg rating6.71

Off the mark in the league from one start. Last season's Score of 8.4 under the new engine is the level he'll be measured against.

Danny Welbeck

Chelsea · Undisclosed
League minutes91
League Cup goals3 in 2
Avg rating6.50

No league goals yet from one start and two appearances off the bench, but three goals in two League Cup games. The value-for-money goal threat is showing up in the cups first.

Slower Starts

Bradley Barcola, Liverpool

The most expensive signing on this list has had the quietest start. He arrived at the end of August and has played 170 league minutes across three games, with two shots, one on target, no goals or assists, and a 6.54 average rating. That's too little time for a Score. Last season's 8.2 under the new engine says the quality is there, but our case for him was goal threat, and that hasn't shown up yet.

Christos Tzolis, Arsenal

Our analysis flagged the step up from Belgium as "the most important paragraph in this article", and the early numbers bear it out. Tzolis has one assist and eight key passes in 365 minutes, but his Score so far is 5.6, down from 8.8 at Club Brugge. His chance creation has made the step up; his goal threat and ball-carrying haven't yet. On top of that he's now listed as a midfielder rather than a forward. Add the two assists he made in the Community Shield and the picture is of a player adjusting, not failing.

Mamadou Sangaré, Brentford

The defensive side of his game has made the step up: 14 tackles, six interceptions and 29 of 51 duels won. The attacking side hasn't. One assist and a Score of 6.5, against 8.5 at Lens, reflect a player doing the dirty work while Brentford build around him.

Ezri Konsa, Arsenal

We were honest in August: Konsa graded bottom of Arsenal's back line on the composites, and his value was a specific one. It's playing out that way. He's won two-thirds of his duels (18 of 27), is passing at 96%, and his Score of 5.8 is close to last season's 6.7.

Amar Dedić, Newcastle

A 6.39 average rating and a Score of 4.9, down from 6.4 at Benfica (Tier 2). The traits we highlighted have travelled: his carrying and chance creation both grade above 8 for Premier League defenders so far. The defensive side has been light, and that's the side Newcastle will want to see.

Brennan Johnson and Dwight McNeil

The winger swap hasn't sparked either player yet. Johnson has no league goals in 249 minutes for Everton (Score 3.5, up slightly from 2.5), though he has a goal and an assist in the League Cup. McNeil has managed 85 league minutes for Palace, plus an assist in the Europa League. It's still too early to say who won the swap.

Not Yet Started

Watch list

Carlos Baleba: 0 minutes

Manchester United paid a reported £70m for Baleba in late August, but he's been listed with an ankle injury since and hasn't played a league minute. Meanwhile, Chema Andrés, the £22m player Brighton signed to replace him, already has a goal and an assist. It's early, but for now the Brighton model is winning the first round.

The Bottom Line

Of the 19 moves, Rogers, Anderson, Rodri and Romero have started the way the data said they would, and Chema Andrés and Manzambi have made bright starts in small samples. The two cautions we raised in the summer are showing up too: Tzolis is finding the step up from Belgium hard, and Barcola's goal threat hasn't appeared yet. With 600 minutes needed before an archetype locks in, we'll run this again once the players have enough minutes for a fair read.

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